China’s neighbours may be under-reporting the disease
Confirmed cases* v number predicted by statistical model, selected countries
1
10
100
1,000
log scale
Fewer cases
than expected
Confirmed cases
Predicted
Russia
Russia has far fewer confirmed cases than
its level of Chinese tourism implies
Indonesia
Myanmar
0 cases
Philippines
Vietnam
Thailand
Taiwan
Malaysia
Japan
Singapore
Australia
Britain
United States
India
More cases than expected
In countries where covid-19 is spreading internally, tourism to
and from China is a poor predictor of the outbreak
Canada
Iraq
Spain
Kuwait
Bahrain
Norway
South Korea
Italy
Iran
Predicted
Confirmed
*To March 4th 2020
